The UK Far From Reaching Its Goal in Annual Smoking Report
The annual reports tracking countries’ progress toward a smoke‑free society are here, and they show that the British Isles are facing clear challenges in meeting their targets.
Key Takeaways
- The UK is falling behind its smoke‑free targets, with England progressing fastest and Northern Ireland slowest.
- England and Wales are projected to reach smoke‑free status in 2033, Scotland in 2034, and Northern Ireland in 2037 — all later than the 2030 target.
- Compared with Sweden, the UK’s results are weaker due to less effective long‑term strategies and limited use of alternative nicotine products.
- The UK aligns more with the EU average than with leading countries like Sweden, Norway, and New Zealand, highlighting a significant gap between ambition and outcome.
Quick Summary: UK Falling Short on Meeting Its Goal
The reports Fighting smoking with alternative nicotine products and The race towards a smoke‑free society paint a bleak picture for the United Kingdom. England has the lowest smoking rate among the UK nations and is closest to reaching smoke‑free status. Scotland and Wales follow, while Northern Ireland is furthest from the target.
“England has seen a more consistent decline in smoking, while other parts of the UK have lost momentum. This demonstrates how crucial long‑term planning and coherent policy tools are if you want to achieve real public health results – not just formulate ambitions,” says Markus Lindblad, Head of Communications at Haypp, which publishes
the report.
In the internal race to become smoke‑free first – defined as fewer than 5 percent daily smokers – England and Wales are expected to reach the goal by 2033, Scotland by 2034, and Northern Ireland not until 2037. All several years later than the official target of 2030.
Ambition Does Not Always Equal Long‑Term Results
Despite the differences, England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland still lag farbehind Sweden, which again this year has the lowest smoking rate in Europe. According to the author of the reports, economist Dr. David Sundén, this is less about political ambition and more about long‑term outcomes.
“The UK has high ambitions, but the comparison clearly shows differences in results between the nations – and compared with Sweden,” he says.
“Sweden’s progress is not driven by more bans, but by a consistent combination of economic policy tools and effective alternatives such as white snus and snus.”
New Zealand as a Role Model
From a broader perspective, the report places the UK closer to the EU average than to the countries progressing fastest toward smoke‑free status. The comparison with Germany, one of the EU’s largest countries, shows a similar pattern. Despite extensive regulation, the decline in smoking is relatively slow. Sweden and Norway lead the way, while Bulgaria and Romania are at the bottom.
In contrast stands New Zealand, which – like Sweden – shows a more consistent and long‑term decline in smoking. When the UK is compared with both major EU countries and nations outside Europe, the differences become clear. While some countries are approaching practical smoke‑free status, both the EU and parts of the UK risk taking a long time to get there.
“Both the EU and the UK have set clear goals for a smoke‑free society, but actual development shows a significant gap between ambition and outcome. Compared with countries like Sweden, it becomes evident that current policy measures – both in the EU and the UK – are not sufficient to reach smoke‑free status within the planned timeframe,” Sundén concludes.
