A Fragmenting Nicotine Market Complicates Research
As cigarettes lose ground among nicotine users in the UK, the nicotine product market is becoming increasingly difficult to study. With consumers switching between nicotine pouches, vapes, and cigarettes, researchers warn that both science and regulation risk lagging behind real‑world behaviour.
Key Takeaways
- Falling smoking rates are reshaping the nicotine market.
- Nicotine users are increasingly switching between product types.
- This mixed product use complicates health effect research.
- Nicotine pouches are mainly used by smokers and vapers.
- Regulation must reflect real-world behaviour and not push users back to cigarettes.
A New Phase in the Nicotine Market
The nicotine market is entering a new and far more complex phase, according to Karl E. Lund, Senior Researcher at the Norwegian Institute of Public Health. He describes how the traditional loyalty to a single nicotine product is rapidly disappearing.
As users now frequently switch between tobacco snus, nicotine pouches, vaping and, at times, smoking, it becomes harder to observe the health effects linked to any one product.
Disrupted Product Loyalty
When speaking at the E‑Cigarette Summit UK in late 2025, Lund commented:
“In the endgame phase of smoking, the nicotine market will be a bit messy.
Product loyalty, which characterised nicotine use in the past, has been replaced by unstable consumption trajectories and frequent switching between products.”
This development is being driven by a growing range of alternative nicotine products – from snus and tobacco-free nicotine pouches to vapes and heated tobacco.
A Positive Trend—with Unforeseen Consequences
At its core, this is a positive trend, as a wider availability of less harmful alternatives increases the chances for smokers to leave cigarettes behind.
However, the consequence is that users increasingly combine several products or switch between them over time, making it harder for researchers to draw clear conclusions.
Science Struggles to Keep Pace
According to Lund, this instability poses a growing challenge for research.
Traditional long‑term studies are based on the assumption that users stick to the same product over extended periods – an assumption that no longer reflects reality.
According to Lund:
“When the use of nicotine pouches is so intertwined with smoking and vaping, it becomes very difficult to isolate product‑specific health effects.”
Several recent studies reach the same conclusion, showing that nicotine pouches are most often used by current or former smokers and vapers rather than by nicotine‑naïve users.
Policy and Regulation Must Adapt
Markus Lindblad, Head of Legal & External Affairs at Haypp, argues that policy has yet to adjust to this new reality.
“Legislation and risk assessments are still built around the idea of stable patterns of use.
But today’s consumers move between products, often as a way of leaving cigarettes behind.”
According to Lindblad, this outdated perspective risks leading to regulation that fails to achieve its public health goals.
“If you ignore how people actually use nicotine products, you risk regulating away the alternatives that replace deadly smoking:”
Indeed, Lindblad warns that bans and higher taxes on less harmful products could push former smokers back to cigarettes.
